This week (Nov. 15-22), 10 percent of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next week or so; 40 percent think rates will fall; and 50 percent believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
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Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, San Francisco
Both the daily and weekly stochastic techs of the 30-year Treasury bond future are bearish (lower prices, higher yields) signaling slightly higher yields and rates in the coming week.
Senior vice president of LoanLogics, Trevose, Pennsylvania
Let’s get fiscal, fiscal. Look for a relief rally in bonds and the dollar as Dodd-Frank reform and tax cuts move towards passage. Expect thankful bucks and equities to duck unless the bills become turkeys.
Greg McBride, CFA
Senior vice president and chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
If tax reform talks bog down, concerns about the low inflation numbers will resurface and pull yields a bit lower.
President and Chief Economist, Naroff Economics, Holland, Pennsylvania
Concern that the tax plan is getting out of control affecting stocks and bonds.
Senior loan officer, AMC Lending Group, Irvine, California
We had a 9 basis point spread from 2.31 percent from 2.40 percent and Wednesday pricing is 2.34 percent so not much action. Key channel levels are 2.27 percent and 2.45 percent and a break of these levels will mean something, but until then we are stuck in this channel. Oil prices have held up well this year, and still no pull backs in the markets, but seeing some selling this week. Lumber prices are at 21-year highs so we see some commodity inflation but not enough to pull up core CPI and PCE.
Vice president of capital markets, CMG Financial, San Ramon, California
It is still expected that the Fed will carry out its final rate move of 2017 by increasing 25 bps at their December meeting. This, combined with their balance sheet unwind, should have a greater effect on mortgage rates than the previous moves earlier in the year. Home prices continue to hinder prospective buyers as almost half of the nation’s top markets are now considered “overvalued” according to recent figures, and although seasonality may be a significant reason for low mortgage volume, at some point higher interest rates will be a dominant force in home values and mortgage volume.
Mortgage planner, Schaffer Mortgage, Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
Look for rates to remain unchanged going into Thanksgiving. Trading could be light so should we get any news that surprises us, we could see some wide swings in bond prices. Happy Thanksgiving to all!
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index
Bankrate’s panel of experts is comprised of economists, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index are released each Thursday.